Forecasting agricultural Products Prices by Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

The objective of this study is to compare three forecasting methods on three agricultural products, consisting of fresh whole chicken (include bone no entrails), red meat pork hip section and Jasmine rice. These methods are Simple Exponential Smoothing method, Holt’s method and Winter’s method. Data are colleced for a period of 60 months from January 2007 to December 2011. The most suitable forecasting method are the one that shows no residual autocorrelation and gives the lowest MSE, MAPE. The results show that Simple Exponential Smoothing method is the most suitable method on three agricultural products due to this method reveals no residual autocorrelation and displays the lowest MSE, MAPE.