The Development of Predictability Measurement Method for Winter Monsoon Forecasts in Thailand

Abstract

The forecasting method is important because it can predict phenomena in the future. The accuracy of the forecast depends on the model and the initial conditions. In addition, the predictability measurement method is important can be check the accurate of forecasts. In this research is winter monsoon forecasts in Thailand by the shallow water model. The data from The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), University of Bergen, Norway. The global climate model is Bergen Climate Model (BCM) Version 2.0 (BCCR-BCM2.0) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is used. The Lyapunov exponent (LE) is the predictability measurement method for verify the efficiency of model and establish the new predictability measurement method by the time series analysis. The result to show that the new predictability measurement method by the time series analysis can be measure the efficiency of the winter monsoon forecasts in Thailand by the shallow water model for December 2015 to December 2056 are suitable.