The potential predictability of the northeast monsoon forecasts by the educational global climate model as measured by the supremum lyapunov exponent

Abstract

Weather predictions by an atmospheric model are determined by the uncertainties in the initial condition and the imperfection of the model. It is difficult to provide accurate weather prediction. The efficiency of weather predictions model is obtained from the analyses of Lyapunov exponent. In addition, the predictability measurements is applied from Lyapunov exponent are finite size Lyapunov exponent, finite time Lyapunov exponent, local Lyapunov exponent together with a new method called supremum Lyapunov exponent are used to measure predictability of the northeast monsoon (winter monsoon) by the Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) and to test sensitivity of the model to small initial perturbations. The EdGCM sensitive to initial perturbations, it is suitable for predictability of the northeast monsoon. The EdGCM is run for 142-year predictions from the year 1958 to 2100. However, only the outputs of geopotential height at 500hPa of December from 2012 to 2100 are used for predictability measurement. The results show that the EdGCM predictability for the northeast monsoon forecast is about 120 years. So the EdGCM can be predictability of the long range forecast.

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