Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Automotive Part of Foreign Markets to Thailand

Abstract

The problem of this research is automotive part companies do not have order because of the world economic crisis and effect to automotive industry. Automotive and automotive parts demand in the world decrease. Automotive Industry of Thailand received affect. Automotive part companies cannot export to foreign markets. The companies in Thailand need the forecasting of automotive part quantity demanded by foreign markets by selecting the most accurate model. This paper presents the modeling for forecasting demand for automotive part of foreign markets to Thailand with time series forecasting techniques. In this study the automotive part are wheels and including parts and accessories because Thailand exported the most in group of automotive parts. These five countries have consistently demanded the largest number of wheels and including parts and accessories are Japan, China, South Korea, Germany, and Indonesia. The research involves historical collecting data for the period of 1997 to 2008. The evaluation function of forecast error is used with MAPE. The results reveal that each country suits for each model in term of the chosen dimension. The government can use the forecasting demand for effective production planning by informing manufactures.