การวิเคราะห์ความอยู่รอด : การศึกษาการออกกลางคันของนักศึกษา ปวส. สายช่างอุตสาหกรรม มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีราชมงคลพระนคร วิทยาเขตพระนครเหนือ

Abstract

The objectives of the study were to find the survival probabilities, the hazard rates of dropping out of the technical diploma level students at Rajamangala University of Technology Phra Nakhon, North Bangkok Campus, and the factors influencing on the hazard rates of students dropout. The sample was the students enrolling in the university in 2005. The study found that for the first semester, the survival probabilities of students in all divisions were high, ranging from 0.9210 to 1.00. For the second semester, the survival probabilities of students in all divisions ranged from 0.7820 to 0.8815 except Industrial Technology which had a maximum value of 0.9295 and Metal Technology which had a minimum value of 0.6271. For the third and the fourth semester, there were 6 divisions which had survival probabilities ranging from 0.7142 to 0.7971. They were Tool and Die Making, Computer Technology, Electrical Technology, Electronics, Automatic Machine, and Production design. There were 4 divisions which had survival probabilities ranging from 0.8275 to 0.8732. They were Mechanical Tool Technology, Business Computer, Mechanical Power, and Industrial Technology. The division of Metal Technology had the minimum value of 0.5932. For the first semester, the hazard rates of dropping of students in all divisions were low, ranging from 0.00 to 0.0822. For the second semester, the hazard rates of dropping of students in all divisions ranged from 0.1260 to 0.2458 except Industrial Technology which had a minimum value of 0.0730 and Metal Technology which had a maximum value of 0.5221. For the third and the fourth semester, the hazard rates of dropping of students in all divisions ranged from 0.1355 to 0.2962 except Metal Technology which had the maximum value of 0.5932 and Tool and Die Making which had the value of 0.3364. The factors influencing on hazard rates of students dropout were place of previous school, region of previous school, and grade point average of previous school. The hazard rate of dropping of students graduating from schools in the central region (not including Bangkok Metropolitan Area) was 43.8% (0.562 times) less than the hazard rate of dropping of students graduating from schools in Bangkok Metropolitan Area. The hazard rate of dropping of students having grade point average of 3.10-3.50 and 3.51-4.00 from previous school was 43.1% (0.569 times) and 63.7% (0.377 times) less than the hazard rate of dropping of students having grade point average of 2.00-2.50 respectively.