Modeling and Forecasting of the Supply of Durian for Consumption in Domestics and Export Markets

Abstract

This research aimed to design and construct a forecasting support system on demand of fresh durian of Thailand by applying 2 mathematical models which were Time Series model and Artificial Neural Network model in order to find an accurate model of forecasting support system on demand of durian yield to forecast durian yield quantity of Thailand in advance and use the forecast results to plan and determine quantity of fresh durian and durian product conforming with domestic consumption and export in order not to be over demand and cheap durian sold price. The forecast models were applied with Time Series model by using Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing and Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing techniques and Back Propagation of Artificial Neural Network model which used 4 input variables relating to durian yield. All of the forecast models were used to forecast total durian yield quantity in 26 provinces of durian cultivated area all around Thailand. Durian yield quantity data used was from 1996 to 2008. After that, the forecast results were used to find the errors of MAE, MSE , RMSE and MAPE. Then, the errors of each forecast model were compared. The forecast model which had the least error was the most accurate forecast model. The research result is following. Back Propagation with 4-8-1 structure of Artificial Neural Network model had the least error so that it was the most accurate forecast model to forecast fresh durian yield quantity in advance.