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dc.contributor.authorกีรติวิบูลย์, วรางคณา
dc.date.accessioned2014-11-14T10:06:49Z
dc.date.available2014-11-14T10:06:49Z
dc.date.issued2014-11-14
dc.identifier.issn1906-0432
dc.identifier.urihttp://repository.rmutp.ac.th/handle/123456789/1424
dc.descriptionวารสารวิชาการและวิจัย มทร.พระนคร, 8(2) : 146 - 160en_US
dc.description.abstractThe objective of this research is to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the export quantity of concentrated latex by the three time series analysis methods, which are Box-Jenkins method, Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method, and combined forecasting method. Time series data from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics during January, 1998 to February, 2014 (194 values) are used and divided into two series. The first 182 values from January, 1998 until February, 2013 for the models prediction and the last 12 values from March, 2013 until February, 2014 for comparison the performance of forecasting models via the criterion of the lowest root mean squared error and the criterion of the highest correlation coefficient between existing values and forecasted values. Research findings indicated that, for all forecasting methods that have been studied, the most powerful method is the combined forecasting and the forecasting model is where and represent the single forecasts at time t from Box-Jenkins method and Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method, respectively.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipRajamangala University of Technology Phra Nakhonen_US
dc.language.isothen_US
dc.subjectConcentrated Latexen_US
dc.subjectน้ำยางข้นen_US
dc.subjectBox-Jenkinsen_US
dc.subjectบอกซ์-เจนกินส์en_US
dc.subjectWinters’ Multiplicative Exponential Smoothingen_US
dc.subjectการปรับเรียบด้วยเส้นโค้งเลขชี้กำลังของวินเทอร์แบบคูณen_US
dc.subjectCombined Forecastingen_US
dc.subjectการพยากรณ์รวมen_US
dc.subjectCombined Forecastingen_US
dc.subjectRoot Mean Squared Erroren_US
dc.subjectรากที่สองของความคลาดเคลื่อนกำลังสองเฉลี่ยen_US
dc.subjectCorrelation Coefficienten_US
dc.subjectสัมประสิทธิ์สหสัมพันธ์en_US
dc.titleForecasting model for the export quantity of concentrated latexen_US
dc.typeJournal Articlesen_US
dc.contributor.emailauthorwarang27@gmail.comen_US


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