Forecasting the export values of alcoholic beverages of thailand

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the export values of alcoholic beverages using three-time series analysis methods, including Box-Jenkins method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, and combined forecasting method. Time series data from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics with total 199 months from January, 1998 to July, 2014 were used and divided into two series. The first 192- month data from January, 1998 until December, 2013 were used to build the forecasting models and the last 7-month data from January to July, 2014 were used to compare the forecasting method accuracy via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. Research findings indicated that for all forecasting methods that had been studied, combined forecasting method was the most accurate method and this model was when and represent the single forecasts at time t from Box-Jenkins method and damped trend exponential smoothing method, respectively.